|COMMUNITY WHITE PAPER||10.5270/OceanObs09.cwp.02|
Initialization for Seasonal and Decadal Forecasts
Magdalena A. Balmaseda(1), Yosuke Fujii(2), Oscar Aves(3), Toshiyuki Awaji(4), David Behringer(5), Nicolas Ferry(6), Tong Lee(7), Michele Rienecker(8), Tony Rosati(9), Detlef Stammer(10), Doug Smith(11), Franco Molteni(1)
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The potential for predicting natural internal climate variability on seasonal and decadal time scales resides mainly in information provided by the ocean initial conditions. While seasonal forecasting is a consolidated activity, with several operational centers around the world issuing routine seasonal forecasts, decadal forecasting is still in its infancy. This paper discusses the role of the ocean observing system in the initialization of seasonal and decadal predictions. It is shown that the assimilation of ocean observations reduces the uncertainty in the estimation of the upper ocean thermal structure and improves the skill of seasonal forecasts. Results from observing system experiments conducted with different seasonal forecast systems indicate that no observing system is redundant, highlighting their complementary nature. Results from synthetic observing system experiments conducted assuming sustainability of the current observing system indicate that Argo data has the potential for constraining the deep ocean variables responsible for decadal variability.
Correspondence should be addressed to E-mail: Magdalena.Balmaseda@ecmwf.int
This paper shall be cited as:
Balmaseda, M. & Co-Authors (2010). "Initialization for Seasonal and Decadal Forecasts" in Proceedings of OceanObs’09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J., Harrison, D.E. & Stammer, D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306, doi:10.5270/OceanObs09.cwp.02
Rights to reproduction of individual articles are held by the authors. The source of the article (these proceedings) shall be cited.